Abstract: . . .  answer to such questions, they can make informed judgments and may be quite confident in the answers that they give. Unfortunately there are many situations where the most common answers to such questions turn out to be wrong. One reason for this may be that some forms of death (e.g. murder) are far more likely to be reported by the media than others (e.g. suicides). In cognitive terms information about some thing is more “available” from memory than information about other things. This lecture will consider a number of common biases that may result from people using cognitive short cuts (heuristics). Such biases are important both in telling us about situations where human judgment is likely to be unreliable and in giving us clues about the cognitive mechanisms that are actually used in probabilistic reasoning. LECTURE 22: Revision The lecture-based component of this module will be assessed by a two-hour MCQ examination with 120 questions. The examination paper will require students to answer all questions, with each question having four alternative answers available. In this lecture we will present a sample paper and discuss the types of question that will be asked and types of multi-choice answers that will be presented.  . . .
. . .  nothing to loop the rope around on either side of the chasm. How do you get across? Solving such problems requires some of them most impressive and complex of human cognitive processes, involving both logic and insight. Some problems can be solved by a painstaking process of mentally working our way to a solution, while other problems are solved with a sudden flash of inspiration. Such inspirations may come when we are not even thinking about the problem. In this lecture we will consider psychological research on problem solving in an attempt to understand why some types of problem are difficult and others are easy, and why some problems may be easier to solve after you have had a break to do something completely different. Page 8 Cognitive Psychology 1 (C81COG) 8 LECTURE 19: Deduction and induction 1) On Thursdays John wears a yellow shirt. John is wearing a blue shirt. What can we conclude? 2) Every swan you have ever seen is white. What can you conclude about the colour of swans? In the first problem you are required to read two general statements and deduce some specific conclusion from them. In the second problem you have a large number of specific observations and have to come to some more general conclusion. Logically these are very different types of problem. Psychologically the differences are not so clear. In this lecture we will look at some of the research on the types of strategy people use in these different tasks. LECTURE 20: Syllogistic reasoning A new monk arrives . . .
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