Abstract: . . .  for how valuable the bets is, they prefer the ones with the highest potential payoffs . Therefore, peoples’ preferences reverse based upon whether they look at the probability of winning or the potential payoff. =>Two preferences for the same options. This shouldn’t happen if principles of rationality are followed!           Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making   Scott Plous examines how people make judgments and decisions in the real world.           Behavioral Decision Theory   BDT is a revision of “rationality” as defined in classical economics Claims to better describe how people reason, think, and decide. Finds people . . .
. . .        Hidden or Absent Data   Application: We see Vietnam as a disaster. But it may have been better than the alternative. But since the alternative didn’t happen, we cannot know. Application: Does the death penalty inhibit murder? We would need to compare murders committed and not committed under the death penalty and those committed and not committed w/o the death penalty. How do you count a crime not committed? Application: How well does the CIA do their job? We have information about threats to US securit . . .
. . .  the process of a group amplifying individual-level psychological effects. Choice Shift: Groups are more willing to take risks than individuals (“risky shift”) If groups are first predisposed toward caution, they’ll be come even more cautious. Initial leanings are key in juries. Prejudiced individuals’ biases are amplified in like-minded groups (like political parties!)           Positive Group Effects   Problem solving Groups solve problems better than individuals, particularly when a leader encourages everyone to share their ideas (Maier and Solem, 1952). Judgments Quantitative tasks: groups slightly more accurate than individuals Brain teasers . . .
. . .  speech from a prominent politician, a party platform, and media story, or other communication of interest and critique it for lack of evidence, logical fallacies, or psychological biases.           Heuristics and Biases   Heuristics: decision “rules of thumb” Biases: systematic tendencies toward a particular outcome in people’s thought processes. Pioneered by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in multiple experiments Provides a description of how people make judgments and decisions under uncertainty . Why do we care about probability calculations? Aren’t they just academic?           When do we use probability?   Most political questions . . .
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